U.S. Import Surge Defies Tariffs, But Decline Expected in Second Half of 2025

Import volumes into the U.S. have unexpectedly risen in early 2025 as buyers rushed to place orders ahead of impending tariff implementations. The National Retail Federation projects a 5.6% decline in cargo volumes for the full year as these trade barriers take effect.

Retail analysts warn the temporary surge masks underlying pressures. "Tariffs are beginning to drive up consumer prices," said Jonathan Gold of the NRF. "Fewer imports will eventually mean fewer goods on store shelves." The forecast follows abnormal buying patterns during 2024's port strikes, creating challenging year-over-year comparisons.

Market observers note the import fluctuations occur against a backdrop of evolving trade policies. The data suggests businesses front-loaded purchases to mitigate cost increases, setting the stage for supply chain adjustments later this year.